威利·卡瑞爾年輕時曾是紐約水牛鋼鐵公司的一名工程師。卡瑞爾到密蘇里州去安裝一架瓦斯清潔機。經過不懈努力,機器終於能運作,但遠遠達不到公司的質量要求。卡瑞爾對自己的失敗感到非常沮喪,甚至失去了睡眠。
後來,卡瑞爾意識到,沮喪並不能解決問題。於是他想出了一個新的方法 - 卡瑞爾公式。
第一步，找出可能發生的最壞情況是什麼（此分析為次選項）
最壞情況不過是丟掉差事，老闆也可能把整個機器拆掉，使投下的20000塊錢泡湯。
第二步，接受這個最壞的情況。（失敗心理作祟）
他對自己説，我也許會因此丟掉差事，那我可精簡以另找一份；至於我的老闆，他們也知道這是一種新方法的試驗，可以把20000塊錢算在研究費用上。
第三步，鎮定地想辦法改善最壞的情況。 （流程分析）
有了能夠接受最壞的情況的思想準備後，就平靜地把時間和精力用來試着改善那種最壞的情況。他做了幾次試驗，終於發現，如果再多花5000塊錢，加裝一些設備，問題就可以解決了。結果公司不但沒有損失20000塊錢，反而很快就達到了目標。
The Carrel Formula
When Willie Carrel was a young engineer at the Buffalo Steel Company in New York, he went to Missouri to install a gas cleaning machine. After tireless efforts, the machine was finally able to operate, but it was still far from meeting the company's quality requirements. Carrel was extremely frustrated by his failure and even lost sleep over it.
Later, Carrel realized that despair could not solve the problem. He then came up with a new method - the Carrel Formula.
Step 1: Identify the worst-case scenario (this analysis is the fallback option).
The worst-case scenario was that he might lose his job, and the boss might even dismantle the entire machine, resulting in the $20,000 investment going to waste.
Step 2: Accept the worst-case scenario. (Overcome the fear of failure)
He told himself that even if he lost his job, he could find another one, and as for the $20,000, his boss would know it was an experiment with a new method, so it could be counted as research expenses.
Step 3: Calmly figure out how to improve the worst-case scenario. (Process analysis)
With the mindset of being able to accept the worst-case scenario, he calmly spent time and effort trying to improve that worst-case scenario. He conducted several experiments and finally discovered that if he spent an additional $5,000 to install some equipment, the problem could be solved. As a result, the company not only did not lose the $20,000, but also quickly achieved its target.
The Carrel Formula demonstrates a systematic approach to problem-solving, where one first acknowledges the worst-case scenario, accepts it, and then proactively works to improve the situation. This method allows for a rational and composed response to challenges, rather than being overwhelmed by despair or fear of failure.