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商業理論_重要概念_累積效應 (Cumulative Effects)「中英雙語版」


累積效應是指微小的改變在長期累積下所產生的巨大成果。以英國單車隊為例,可以解釋這個效應。

 

在2003年,英國自行車協會聘請了戴夫·布萊爾斯福德作為國家隊教練。布萊爾斯福德的方針是將自行車的各個方面細分,並進行微小的改善。這些微小的改善包括選擇不同的按摩油來舒緩肌肉疲勞、改良坐墊以提高舒適度、正確洗手以減少感冒機率等。

 

五年後,英國自行車國家隊在北京奧運會的路賽和場地賽項目中獲得了六成的金牌。四年後,在倫敦奧運會上,他們創下了九項奧運紀錄和七項世界紀錄。這些非凡的成就正是由無數微小的改善所累積而成。

 

這個例子展示了累積效應的力量。人們往往高估瞬間決定的重要性,而低估微小改善的價值。然而,長期來看,這些微小的改善才是真正有意義的。好習慣和壞習慣的價值和代價必須通過時間的複利效應來看,結果才會變得明顯。每天進步1%,持續一年,會有37倍的進步;而每天退步1%,一年後則會趨近於零。

 

累積效應的原因之一是人們低估微小改善的價值,因為這些改善不會立即產生結果。人們往往只關注行為所帶來的即時愉悅感,而忽視了行為所造成的結果需要時間才能顯現。

 

結果是習慣的滯後指標。例如,體重是飲食習慣的滯後指標,成績是學習習慣的滯後指標,整潔是整理習慣的滯後指標。重複什麼,就得到什麼。習慣經過長時間的累積,會產生複利效應。因此,了解習慣的複利效應並不足夠,還需要知道如何培養習慣並根據自己的需求進行設計。


 

The Cumulative Effects

 

The concept of cumulative effects refers to the immense outcomes that can arise from the gradual accumulation of small changes over time. The example of the British cycling team can be used to illustrate this effect.

 

In 2003, the British Cycling Association hired Dave Brailsford as the national team coach. Brailsford's approach was to break down every aspect of cycling and make tiny improvements. These minor enhancements included choosing different massage oils to soothe muscle fatigue, refining the saddle design for greater comfort, and practicing proper handwashing to reduce the likelihood of colds.

 

Five years later, the British national cycling team won over 60% of the gold medals in the road and track events at the Beijing Olympics. Four years after that, at the London Olympics, they set nine Olympic records and seven world records. These extraordinary achievements were the result of the cumulative effect of countless small improvements.

 

This example showcases the power of the cumulative effect. People often overestimate the importance of single, immediate decisions, while undervaluing the impact of small, gradual improvements. However, in the long run, these minor enhancements are truly meaningful. The value and cost of good and bad habits become evident through the compounding effect of time. If one improves by just 1% each day for a year, the cumulative progress will be 37-fold; whereas a 1% daily decline would lead to near-zero results in a year.

 

One reason for the cumulative effect is that people underestimate the value of small improvements because they do not immediately see the results. Individuals often focus on the immediate gratification of their actions, overlooking the fact that the consequences may take time to manifest.

 

Outcomes are the lagging indicators of habits. For example, body weight is a lagging indicator of dietary habits, academic performance is a lagging indicator of learning habits, and cleanliness is a lagging indicator of organizational habits. What you repeat, you get. Habits, when compounded over time, can generate exponential effects. Therefore, understanding the compounding effect of habits is not enough; one must also know how to cultivate habits and design them according to their own needs.


 


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